Climate resilience in Zambia: Measuring performance
This project is providing crucial insights into the performance of climate resilience activities in Zambia. The Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) is a multi-donor fund that supports initiatives promoting climate change adaptation at the local, regional and national level. We are leading a project to support the monitoring and evaluation of the second phase of the PPCR in Zambia, where climate change threatens to undermine recent strong economic growth. The team is drawing on both secondary data sources and primary research to identify key indicators for outputs, outcomes and impacts based on ‘theories of change’ for different activities. A mixed-methods participatory scorecard approach that incorporates focus group discussions and household surveys is also being developed and piloted as a resource to capture key indicator data at the beneficiary level over future evaluations. Over the longer-term, incorporating lessons learnt from these evaluations into programme design should help strengthen the impact of PPCR II activities and support the move to a climate resilient model of development in Zambia.
Climate change has become a major barrier to Zambia’s sustainable development, threatening to undermine recent strong economic growth. Over the past three decades, events caused by weather variability have cost the country some 0.4% in annual economic growth, mainly through damage to the agricultural sector.
The Climate Investment Fund’s Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) was established to address this threat by promoting activities that support climate-resilient growth and development in vulnerable countries. The second phase of the programme in Zambia (PPCR II) is focused around the implementation of projects at the community, district and national level.
The success of these activities depends on the ability to gather comprehensive, accurate evidence of their performance. This project was established to fill this knowledge gap by supporting the robust monitoring and evaluation of PPCR II.
We are leading a team of experts to design and develop a baseline study and wider monitoring and evaluation framework for the PPCR II in Zambia.
The team is adopting a ‘theory of change approach’, drawing on both secondary data sources and primary research to identify key indicators for the outputs, outcomes and impacts of different PPCR II activities. Extensive desk-based literature and documentation reviews are being complemented by field studies and key informant interviews to establish baseline values against which to benchmark project performance.
As part of a ‘toolkit’ to support comparable future evaluations, targets for key indicators are being established based on consultations with key stakeholders. Field studies will be used to pilot a mixed-methods scorecard approach that incorporates focus group discussions and household surveys to capture key indicator data at the beneficiary level.
Specific areas of work include:
- Developing theories of change and identifying key indicators for project activities
- Conducting desk-based literature reviews and key informant interviews to identify baseline values and set project targets
- Designing and implementing methodologies for participatory scorecard monitoring incorporating Focus Group Discussions and household surveys
- Developing a wider monitoring framework including processes for data collection and analysis and ‘toolkit’ resources such as templates for Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (KAP) surveys
- Organising and facilitating in-country stakeholder workshops to discuss baseline findings and M&E framework development
This project will help improve understanding of the outputs, outcomes and impacts of activities designed to improve climate resilience in Zambia. By establishing baseline values, realistic targets and robust data collection and processing methodologies, we are providing a blueprint for assessing the performance of PPCR II activities over the lifetime of the programme. In turn, evidence gathered through these assessments will provide donors with crucial insights which can be incorporated into the roll-out of programme activities to improve their impact at both the community and national levels.
Over the longer-term, improved programming will help support the shift away from a ‘business-as-usual’ model of policy and planning to one that promotes climate resilient development in Zambia.